Chinmay Prasun Biswas:
Player Piano, the first novel of American author Kurt Vonnegut Jr., was published in 1952. Player Piano means that the piano itself is its player. The piano, symbol of machine, runs by itself, without using any human hand. It is thought that this novel is partly inspired by the author's working time at General Electric, an American multi-national company.
This novel depicts the terrible effect of automation and technology on human life. It also portrays the fictional picture of a highly mechanised society where machines do all the works eliminating any need for human labour. Setting of this novel is Ilium, New York, a society divided by a river. The privileged scientists, managers and engineers who maintain and control the system live on one side. Others reside on the opposite side but they are jobless. However, they are provided adequate housing and food but machines are performing all the works. Roughly speaking, people there are divided into two groups – highly skilled engineers or qualified managers and unemployed masses who are almost unnecessary in society. Widespread mechanisation and total automation create conflict between the wealthy upper class (engineers and managers) who keep society running and the unemployed lower class whose skill and purpose have been replaced by machines.
1952 was a time when work was increasing rapidly in the post-World War II Western world and no one was sitting idle. Yet, it is surprising that how such a unique and far-reaching idea came to Vonnegut's head particularly when robots and artificial intelligence were beyond imagination and machines were manually operated. But standing in 2026 the nightmare world that Vonnegut drawn in 1952 does not appear at all unrealistic and imaginary. Situation in gradually advancing to that stage.
According to Bangladesh Economic Survey published in 2026, overall unemployment rate is fluctuating between 4.6% and 5.0%. Youth unemployment, particularly among educated youths, is slightly over 16.8%. Economic and political uncertainty and shortage of skilled manpower have been identified as the main reasons for this.
Referring to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) the daily Jugantar has reported that nearly 900,000 graduates were unemployed in 2024. The number of unemployed people has increased by 1,60,000 during one year. The number has reached 26,20,000 on 31st December, 2024, compared to 24,60,000 in 2023. At the same time, unemployment rate among bachelor's degree holders increased to 13.50% from 13.11% in 2023. More than 20% educated women remained unemployed. Number of unemployed people having below secondary education increased to 5,00,000 which is 1,00,000 (0.51%) higher than that of earlier year. Overall national unemployment rate in 2024 was 4.48%.
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has summarised the current situation of labour market and the main characteristics of unemployment. The number of job seekers currently ranges between 26,24,000 and 35,00,000. Referring to ILO forecast, the daily Jugantar has informed that unemployment situation among the youth is alarming compared to overall unemployment rate. A large number of simple graduates, having no practical and technical skill, are tussling for employment. Basis of economy is gradually turning towards manufacturing sector (garments, pharmaceuticals, electronics etc.) and service sector from agricultural sector causing huge changes in nature and technique of work. There are large disparities in employment and wages between urban and rural areas. Beyond these, participation of female labour force is relatively low.
According to a report titled Asia-Pacific Employment and Social Outlook-2018, published in January, 2026, Bangladesh ranks second (10.7%) in highly educated unemployment, next to Pakistan (16.8%), among 28 Asia-Pacific countries.
At a glance, this is the terrible overall unemployment situation but what about those who are employed? Crossing premises and corridors, robot and artificial intelligence are peeping through the windows of houses i.e. workplaces (factories and industrial undertakings) in Bangladesh. Referring to a virtual seminar organised by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), the Dhaka Mail has reported on 16th July, 2026 that 60% women workers in garment sector may turn unemployed by 2041.
Researcher Dr. Taufiqul Islam said that as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) status, rapid technological change in global economy is creating a new reality i.e. threat for the country's labour market. Artificial intelligence, automation, digital economy, climate change, global supply chains and changes in international trade system will change the nature of employment in future. As a result, risk of losing job for low-skilled workers will increase and demand for high-skilled personnel will increase.
Although ready-made garment sector is a main driving force of economy and the highest foreign currency earner, automation is likely to affect this sector highly. Increased use of automated technology in production process will throw around 12,22,000 workers at risk. It will have the biggest blow on female workers because a large portion of workers working in this sector are women. By 2041, around 60% of female workers in ready-made garment sector will become jobless if reskilling and new types of employment opportunities are not arranged along with technological change. So, skill development must be a national priority for protecting employment.
CPD research has shown that employment in production sector remains stagnant at 81,00,000 for a long time whereas 13,00,000 people have lost job in 2024. It is worrying is that about 90% of those were females. It suggests that women are bearing the highest pressure of technology-based changing realities in labour market.
To reduce cost and increase production different industrial groups are thinking of using artificial intelligence. Chairman of Ha-Meem group has said that buyers of the US and Europe are unwilling to pay increased price. Rather, they are emphasising artificial intelligence and technology-based production system using less manpower. He has a plan to reduce about 10,000 employees out of 75,000 to control costs and maintain competitiveness (Bhorer Pata, 08-6-2026).
So, there are reasons to apprehend that situation of Player Piano is approaching towards us. Jobless people in Player Piano had food and houses but will the apprehended jobless persons in Bangladesh be so fortunate?
-The writer is a former Commissioner of Taxes